Introduction
Recently satellites have been used to track surface algal blooms. This has resulted in the production of some services that purport to be Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) nowcasts and forecasts. Understanding this phenomena requires a more complex approach, though there is some merit in using satellite derived chlorophyll images to delineate high biomass near surface algal blooms.
Much cutting edge HAB research work has focussed on thin layers, where HAB species are present in thin (<1m in thickness) layers of limited geographical extent often associated with strong density interfaces in the water column (Donaghay et al., 1997; Xie et al., 2007).
Clearly, a HAB forecast needs to factor in changes in water column structure and transport pathways in order for such a forecast to be realistic. The forecast should also include all available biotoxin, phytoplankton and bioassay data to support the model forecast and satellite imagery of a bloom.
This product will be of great importance to regulators, monitoring bodies, industry and coastal zone managers throughout Western Europe. Our understanding of the biological, chemical and physical processes that result in HABs in the ocean depends on the scope and scale of our observations.
Figure 1. Diagram of the work programme
Aim
The development of forecasting capabilities to warn of impending harmful algal blooms.
The steps to achieve this include a series of scientific and technical objectives which will enable the modelling of physical – biological interactions leading to the forecasting of toxin events, fish mortalities or ecological disruption from harmful algal blooms. The project will demonstrate that the physical, chemical and biological drivers, available through the GMES Marine core services and ongoing monitoring, can be used in a risk analysis / forecasting product to enable more successful mitigation of potential negative impacts.
Scientific Objectives
Objective 1. The identification of key past events which will be re-analysed and used for training the modelling system
Objective 2. Incorporation of the GMES Marine Core Services (MCS) with the above selected events will be used to develop model based hindcast products. These will be used to tune the system and move towards an operational model for forecasting events.
Objective 3. Design of regional model systems and delivery of nowcast for specific HABs and location information, transport pathways, remote sensed data.
Objective 4. Population of HAB-Distributed Decision Support system (HAB-DDSS) (effectively a HAB specific Thematic Assembly Centre) from relevant data streams (phytoplankton, biotoxin, satellite, in-situ, etc).
Objective 5: Provision of expert interpretation of the available data by way of the web-portal which will be carried out on a periodic basis depending on risk. This assessment will be then issued via a warning system to end.
Technical Objectives
Objective 1: The development of model runs for Hindcasting and tuning the system with regard to various HAB species / risks and validation
Objective 2: Development of HAB-DDSS to assemble data from MCS and Monitoring Data
Objective 3: Provide feedback loop for users to connect with the project experts to comment and progress the objectives in a manner that gives most benefit to the end user.
Objective 4: An economic assessment will provide metrics on the ability of the ASIMUTH system to mitigate risk and improve productivity.
Objective 5: Dissemination activities and exploitation of the project output will include Website/Bulletin Board, Conferences, Scientific publications.
Implementaion
Funding Scheme – FP 7 Cooperation – Space Theme
Expected Start date – 1st December 2010
Duration – 36 months
Funding - €3,237,137
Summary of Work packages
Project Management: This WP concerns the overall management of the project and the organisation, administration and progressing of all tasks associated with the running of the project.
Reanalysis and Training: Initial assignment of key areas and species for study, collate marine core service data and satellite data , develop model to run hindcast simulation, validate and fine tune model runs.
Nowcast / Forecast: Design of Regional VØ Model System running for specific species and location, Develop transport pathways and acquire remote and in-situ measured data which will all feed into HAB-DDSS
Alert System: Design and develop HAB-DDSS system, User acceptance testing, design of web portal to HAB-DDSS, Expert interpretation of the regional information assembled within HAB-DDSS
User Acceptance and Sustained Production: User requirement workshop, economic assessment to assess improved ability to mitigate risk and increase productivity, develop business model for project sustainability. Successful integration of system into current user practices and their working environment.
Dissemination and Exploitation: Develop project Website and bulletin board, assign publicity of project and present at workshops and conferences, develop warning system and circulate industry guidelines.
References
Donaghay, P.L., & T.R. Osborn, (1997). Toward a theory of biological-physical control of harmful algal bloom dynamics and impacts. Limnol. Oceanogr., 42(5)
Silke, J., F. O'Beirn & M. Cronin (2005) Karenia mikimotoi: An exceptional dinoflagelate bloom in western Irish waters, summer 2005. Marine Environment and Health Series, No. 21, Marine Institute Publication ISSN No. 1649-0053.
Xie HQ, Lazure P, Gentien P., (2007). Small scale retentive structures and Dinophysis. J. Mar. Sys. 64: 1-4
Acknowledgements
This project is supported by the EC FP7 Programme, Space Theme, Grant Agreement No.: 261860
The Facility
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